As the brave Ukrainian People fight for their country and their lives, I support the creation of a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine …and over Russia itself if they give us any trouble. Would it be the beginning of World War III? We can examine the calculus later in the post, but for now, consider: When a brutal thug threatens the rest of the world with nuclear war, that act, in and of itself, suggests that sooner or later the other nations of the world will have to step in and take Putin’s nuclear weapons away from him. If we are going to have to disarm Putin (and sooner or later, someone will have to disarm him) …well, sooner makes more sense and saves more lives than later. Today, Russia’s military is over-extended and relatively weak. Their account at the International Bank of Goodwill is overdrawn, and the entire world stands aghast at their crude land-grab.    

By invading Ukraine, Russia has swallowed a porcupine they will not be able to digest easily. Their level of support in the United States is practically non-existent and is limited to the talking heads at Fox — the rest of the country finally has a President that doesn’t work for Mr. Lavrov and the FSB anymore. Considering Russia’s continuous engagement in proxy wars, such as in Syria; wars of annexation, such as in Crimea; and their support of military force against civilians in Belarus and around the world, it should be obvious that if Western Civilization steps up to force a regime change in Russia right now, rather than later, many civilian lives could be saved in Ukraine. But what does change in Russia look like?

Sanctions? First, we in the West should disabuse ourselves of the notion that economic sanctions will have any effect whatsoever on regime change in Russia. Already the richest man in the world several times over, Vladimir Putin’s checks are drawn on a bank equal to the full value of a nation state and every thing every citizen has — right down to the toothbrush. We cannot touch his wealth, and he doesn’t care one whit how long the line is at BeetSmart when they’re down to the last potato. It would be a major inconvenience to Putin if there were riots, but in the end, he has an army, the air force, and the state police.

Will the oligarchs will kill Putin themselves? Sounds plausible, but nyet, again. It’s true that the oligarchs support and fund Putin’s government, but it is not true that they can oppose him. Putin alone commands national intelligence, federal police, and state police forces that will torture and poison oligarchs who oppose him. The oligarchs are interchangeable, with eager replacements waiting in the wings– they serve Putin at the pleasure of Putin, not the other way around. Besides, they are already billionaires many times over, and taking a few yachts, condos, and cars will be inconvenient, but they will simply buy replacements after the heat dies down.

Here’s what we know so far:

1. Sanctions won’t work
2. The Russian people will not overthrow Putin
3. The oligarchs are powerless to stop him

Is our last option to mass forces at Putin’s borders and attack Russia directly? Unfortunately, Putin has that angle covered, too: They are a nuclear power. So if sanctions won’t work, the people can’t revolt, the oligarchs cannot depose him, and we can’t attack him …then Putin can stay in power as long as he likes before passing the torch to his clone, right?

Maybe. The West has been handed a window of opportunity: Putin has miscalculated, and if the West can find the wherewithal to exploit his error, Putin is finished. This is really quite simple because the Ukrainians have already shown that they can outfight the Russian military and outsmart Putin’s strategy. The Ukranians have set the stage for a European No-Fly Zone by inviting the West to step in and help them as a humanitarian act. Putin has said that he might resort to nuclear weapons if the West does this, without saying exactly what that means. But will he? Will he use nuclear weapons on Moscow if it is suddenly surrounded by NATO tanks and soldiers? If we grab the little dick-tater by his throat, will he actually fire a salvo of nukes at Washington out of vengence? He is saying that he will, and he is used to the West posturing, blowing hot air, and talking tough about sanctions …before capitulating to his demands.

Former International Chess Grand Master and World Chess Champion Gary Kasparov knows Vladimir Putin personally and has played chess with Putin several times (he has said that Putin can’t play chess worth a damn). A while back, I listened to Mr. Kasparov explain to Sam Harris that, while Putin has none of the characteristics that make a good chess player, he is quite skilled at playing poker. He said that they played poker  a number of times because it was Putin’s favorite game. He went on to call Vlad the equivalent of a Poker Grand Master, and described the dictator’s style. He noted that Putin consistently bluffs a bad hand, escalating the bet until the other players fold. He described the wilingness to escalate as Putin’s “tell.”

But that was poker, this is a potential World War III issue.

If we don’t let him take Ukraine, will it be another World War? Since we can already see all of Putin’s cards, we know he has a bad hand. By escalating his bet to mutually-assured destruction and World War III …we already know this is the “tell” that he’s bluffing. If we step forward as a united front, mass NATO ground forces on Russia’s border, and enforce a No-Fly Zone, he will have to pull his forces out of Ukraine and go home or start a World War he cannot possibly win.

Will China come to his rescue? The only thing about China that we do not know for sure is that they do not actually have to do anything at all. True, they are Russia’s only stated ally; and it is also true they would like to buy Russian oil, and not to mention that China is not averse to sticking its thumb in our eye when STOP BUYING FROM COMPANIES DOING BUSINESS IN RUSSIA! they can …but we are China’s largest market. Other “frenemy” nations, like India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia will not support us, either, but this would be an invaluable opportunity to sort out our real friends from our real foes (and stop wasting aid and arms money on those nations that are not our friends).

If we are, in fact, playing poker here, and not chess, let’s impose the requested no-fly zone and call the little capo tutti capo’s bluff.

STOP BUYING FROM COMPANIES DOING BUSINESS IN RUSSIA! 

Find a continuously updated list of companies making a buck in Russia here: Companies Still Doing Business in Russia

The next step? We really need to re-imagine how the United Nations can work as a peace keeper in the future. Maybe they need to eliminate veto power.